Soros is coming back!

I have a really really strong feeling, George Soros is back! Pray for GOD use him to help American and majority of the western countries overcome the the deepest economics recession since 1930.GOD make our earth more balance. One world,one dream! IN THE NAME OF LORD,AMEN!

US recession is likely

The billionaire investor George Soros has said it will be "very difficult to avoid" recessions in the US and the UK.

In an interview with BBC News, Mr Soros said he supported the US Federal Reserve's surprise interest rate cut, which bolstered global stock indexes.

"You do have to rescue markets otherwise you would go into a depression, as you did in the 1930s."

He also said that the current market turmoil is a sign of global influence shifting to the developing world.

'Shift of power'

"I'm not looking for a worldwide recession," he said.

"I'm looking for a significant shift of power and influence away from the US in particular and a shift in favour of the developing world, particularly China."

He added that authorities have trusted markets too much over the past 20 years.

"The authorities came to rely on the markets to right themselves," he said.

"But they ought to have known better because they have in the past come to the rescue."

Mr Soros was the man reported to have made $1bn profit in September 1992, betting correctly that the British currency would have to be devalued and leave the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

Amazing Grace

Amazing grace,how sweet the sound
That saved a wretch like me!
I once was lost but now I'm found;
Was blind,but now I see.

When we've been there,ten thousand years
Bright shinning as the sun.
We've no less days to sing GOD's praise
Than when we first begun

PRAISE GOD!!!

Owen's hometown

About my hometown—Ping Yao

Today I will do a presentation about my hometown, which is Ping Yao City.

Ping Yao is an extremely famous historic cultural city of China and a world cultural heritage site. It is located in the centre of Shanxi Province. It is 90 kilometers away from the south of Tai Yuan (the main city of Shanxi province) on the Fen River.

Ping Yao ancient City is an outstanding example of Chinese Han nationality during Ming and Qing Dynasties, remaining all features of such periods, Ping Yao ancient city reveals a picture of unexpected cultural, social, economic and religious development in Chinese history, said by UNESCO.

In 1997, Ancient Ping Yao City was formally confirmed” World Culture Heritage” by UNESCO, and was listed in World Heritage List.

Ping Yao is the prototype of an ancient the seat of government, also is the birthplace of Shanxi merchants. There are several places of interest you must go. For example, Ping Yao City Wall, Seat of the country Government, Shuang Lin Temple and Rishengchang (Sunrise Prosperity)…..etc (Here I have to show the picture to my audience, because most of them don’t know those places).

Now I will introduce the birthplace of Shanxi merchants . After this you will know (which is) the first bank in China. During the Ming and Qing Dynasties, the business man organized commercial groups so that they can engage in Business nationwide. Therefore Shanxi province having some of the most important commercial groups, fortunately Ping Yao as the center at that time period The Xiyucheng (西裕成) dye store in the west street dealt in remittance. In 1823 it became the first draft bank in China, dealing in bank drafts rather than in silver or gold money. Known as Rishengchang (Sunrise Prosperity), it’s the first bank in China. During hundreds of years of the draft banking lasted in China, Ping Yao became the hub (as important as the New York City in American now!) as other local merchants opened similar banks in their cities. Therefore the branch banks were set up in major cities in China and in Asia soon. This led to the great prosperity in Ping Yao, with its subsequent economic, cultural and societal development, Courtyards became more flourishing. Streets, shops and stores were developed and enlarged. So its products, such as lacquer ware and clay sculptures, became well known.

The same as the other places of interest, we have lots of delicious local food. Such as Ping Yao Beef, WanTuzi, Deep fried sweet rice balls, and Steamed oat noodles….etc. You can eat them in every restaurant, even every corner of the street in the City of Ping Yao. We have lots of special products as well. Like Polished Lacquer Ware, Chinese yam….etc. (show the picture to them)

Lastly, as I heard, some of extremely famous visitors have been there in the past 10 years. For example: Former French president, the president of People of Republic of China Hu Jintao, Former Premier Zhu Rongji, and so on. So I welcome all of you to make a way to my hometown. You will see so many historical sights of ancient China over there. I am sure you will feel a big surprise (or love there) after you finish your travelling of Ping Yao.

This is the end of my presentation, for more details please refer to the information below. Thank you for your attention.

Owen

(Reference: how to get there. The nearest airport is Tai Yuan Wu Xu airport station located between Tai Yuan City and Yu Ci City (I lived in the City most of my time). First, you have to take a flight to reach Tai Yuan City(Tai Yuan Wu Xu airport is not a international airport, so you have to take a fight reach Beijing international airport first, then change to a local domestic airline to reach there), after that you need to transfer to train and bus. For your safety, I strongly recommend you to take a train. Because lots of carriage accidents happened on the Highway and Expressway. Other reason is some of the drivers are really crazy! The Tong Pu railway line run north-south through or near Ping Yao, frequent trains run between two cities. It takes you around one and half hours.)

Reference website: http://www.pingyaotrip.com/pyenglish/index.asp;

http://www.pyxyc.com/kzjj0.htm

Bush Latest Blunder

The Bush administration is again committing a blunder in the Middle East by supporting the Israeli government in its refusal to recognize a Palestinian unity government that includes Hamas. This precludes any progress towards a peace settlement at a time when such progress could help avert conflagration in the greater Middle East.

The US and Israel seek to deal only with Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority president. They hope new elections would deny Hamas the majority it has in the Palestinian legislative council. This is a hopeless strategy, because Hamas would boycott early elections and, even if their outcome resulted in Hamas's exclusion from the government, no peace agreement would hold without Hamas support.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is pursing a different path. In a February summit in Mecca between Mr Abbas and the Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal, the Saudi government worked out an agreement between Hamas and Fatah, which have been clashing violently, to form a national unity government. Hamas agreed "to respect international resolutions and the agreements [with Israel] signed by the Palestinian Liberation Organisation", including the Oslo accords. The Saudis view this accord as the prelude to the offer of a peace settlement with Israel, to be guaranteed by Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. But no progress is possible as long as the Bush administration and Ehud Olmert's Israeli government refuse to recognize a unity government that includes Hamas.

Many causes of the current impasse go back to the decision by Ariel Sharon, former Israeli prime minister, to withdraw from the Gaza Strip unilaterally, without negotiating with the then Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority. This contributed to Hamas's electoral victory. Then Israel, with strong US backing, refused to recognize the democratically elected Hamas government and withheld payment of the millions in taxes collected by the Israelis on its behalf. This caused economic hardship and undermined the government's ability to function. But it did not reduce support for Hamas among Palestinians and it reinforced the position of Islamic and other extremists who oppose negotiations with Israel. The situation deteriorated to the point where Palestine no longer had an authority with which Israel could negotiate.

This is a blunder, because Hamas is not monolithic. Its inner structure is little known to outsiders but, according to some reports, it has a military wing, largely directed from Damascus and beholden to its Syrian and Iranian sponsors, and a political wing that is more responsive to the needs of the Palestinian population that elected it. If Israel had accepted the results of the election, that might have strengthened the more moderate political wing. Unfortunately, the ideology of the "war on terror" does not permit such subtle distinctions. Nevertheless, subsequent events provided some grounds for believing that Hamas has been divided between its different tendencies.

No sooner had Hamas agreed to enter into a government of national unity than the military wing engineered the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier, which prevented such a government from being formed by provoking a heavy-handed Israeli military response. Hizbollah used the opportunity to stage an incursion from Lebanon, kidnapping more Israeli soldiers. Despite a disproportionate response by Israel, Hizbollah stood its ground, gaining the admiration of the Arab masses, whether Sunni or Shia. It was this dangerous state of affairs - including the breakdown of government in Palestine and fighting between Fatah and Hamas - that prompted the Saudi initiative.

Defenders of the current policy argue that Israel cannot afford to negotiate from a position of weakness. But Israel's position is unlikely to improve as long as it pursues its current course. Military escalation - not just an eye for an eye but roughly 10 Palestinian lives for every Israeli one - has reached its limit. After the Israeli Defence Force's retaliation against Lebanon's road system, airport and other infrastructure one must wonder what could be the next step. Iran poses a more potent danger to Israel than either Hamas or Hizbollah, which are Iran's clients. There is growing danger of a regional conflagration in which Israel and the US could be on the losing side. With Hizbollah's ability to withstand the Israeli onslaught and the rise of Iran as a prospective nuclear power, Israel's existence is more seriously endangered than at any time since its birth.

Both Israel and the US seem frozen in their unwillingness to negotiate with a Palestinian Authority that includes Hamas. The sticking-point is Hamas's unwillingness to recognize the existence of Israel, but that could be made a condition for an eventual settlement rather than a precondition for negotiations. Demonstrating military superiority is not sufficient as a policy for dealing with the Palestinian problem. There is now the chance of a political solution with Hamas brought on board by Saudi Arabia. It would be tragic to miss out on that prospect because the Bush administration is mired in the ideology of the war on terror.

The biggest event in coming 2 years!

The current financial crisis was precipitated by a bubble in the US housing market. In some ways it resembles other crises that have occurred since the end of the second world war at intervals ranging from four to 10 years.

However, there is a profound difference: the current crisis marks the end of an era of credit expansion based on the dollar as the international reserve currency. The periodic crises were part of a larger boom-bust process. The current crisis is the culmination of a super-boom that has lasted for more than 60 years.

Boom-bust processes usually revolve around credit and always involve a bias or misconception. This is usually a failure to recognise a reflexive, circular connection between the willingness to lend and the value of the collateral. Ease of credit generates demand that pushes up the value of property, which in turn increases the amount of credit available. A bubble starts when people buy houses in the expectation that they can refinance their mortgages at a profit. The recent US housing boom is a case in point. The 60-year super-boom is a more complicated case.

Every time the credit expansion ran into trouble the financial authorities intervened, injecting liquidity and finding other ways to stimulate the economy. That created a system of asymmetric incentives also known as moral hazard, which encouraged ever greater credit expansion. The system was so successful that people came to believe in what former US president Ronald Reagan called the magic of the marketplace and I call market fundamentalism. Fundamentalists believe that markets tend towards equilibrium and the common interest is best served by allowing participants to pursue their self-interest. It is an obvious misconception, because it was the intervention of the authorities that prevented financial markets from breaking down, not the markets themselves. Nevertheless, market fundamentalism emerged as the dominant ideology in the 1980s, when financial markets started to become globalised and the US started to run a current account deficit.

Globalisation allowed the US to suck up the savings of the rest of the world and consume more than it produced. The US current account deficit reached 6.2 per cent of gross national product in 2006. The financial markets encouraged consumers to borrow by introducing ever more sophisticated instruments and more generous terms. The authorities aided and abetted the process by intervening whenever the global financial system was at risk. Since 1980, regulations have been progressively relaxed until they have practically disappeared.

The super-boom got out of hand when the new products became so complicated that the authorities could no longer calculate the risks and started relying on the risk management methods of the banks themselves. Similarly, the rating agencies relied on the information provided by the originators of synthetic products. It was a shocking abdication of responsibility.

Everything that could go wrong did. What started with subprime mortgages spread to all collateralised debt obligations, endangered municipal and mortgage insurance and reinsurance companies and threatened to unravel the multi-trillion-dollar credit default swap market. Investment banks' commitments to leveraged buyouts became liabilities. Market-neutral hedge funds turned out not to be market-neutral and had to be unwound. The asset-backed commercial paper market came to a standstill and the special investment vehicles set up by banks to get mortgages off their balance sheets could no longer get outside financing. The final blow came when interbank lending, which is at the heart of the financial system, was disrupted because banks had to husband their resources and could not trust their counterparties. The central banks had to inject an unprecedented amount of money and extend credit on an unprecedented range of securities to a broader range of institutions than ever before. That made the crisis more severe than any since the second world war.

Credit expansion must now be followed by a period of contraction, because some of the new credit instruments and practices are unsound and unsustainable. The ability of the financial authorities to stimulate the economy is constrained by the unwillingness of the rest of the world to accumulate additional dollar reserves. Until recently, investors were hoping that the US Federal Reserve would do whatever it takes to avoid a recession, because that is what it did on previous occasions. Now they will have to realise that the Fed may no longer be in a position to do so. With oil, food and other commodities firm, and the renminbi appreciating somewhat faster, the Fed also has to worry about inflation. If federal funds were lowered beyond a certain point, the dollar would come under renewed pressure and long-term bonds would actually go up in yield. Where that point is, is impossible to determine. When it is reached, the ability of the Fed to stimulate the economy comes to an end.

Although a recession in the developed world is now more or less inevitable, China, India and some of the oil-producing countries are in a very strong countertrend. So, the current financial crisis is less likely to cause a global recession than a radical realignment of the global economy, with a relative decline of the US and the rise of China and other countries in the developing world.

The danger is that the resulting political tensions, including US protectionism, may disrupt the global economy and plunge the world into recession or worse.

The writer is chairman of Soros Fund Management

Freedom is the solution!

Bible said it is a good thing to give thank to LORD! Philippian4:6-7

GOD is light; in Him there is no darkness at all. 1 John1:5

Peace I leave with you; my peace I give you. I do not give to you as the world gives. Do not let your hearts be troubled and do not be afraid. John14:27